So many thoughts rush through my head.
What deck to play?
What will the meta be?
Whats a realistic goal. To win? To get to the final? To avoid becomming Apache Jones again?
Can you choose decks based on your what you want to achieve? When you look at some decks I can think "this might win a table or two, but can it win a final table?"
A perfect example of this is a weenie presence deck. Out of three tables it will likely sweep one and get you a couple of more vp:s since your first prey will almost always have a really tough start, but I have very seldom, if ever, seen one win a final table. Is this deck type a good choice for an ECQ? If your primary goal is to qualify and everything beyond that is a bonus then I would say yes, but if it is to win the whole thing, then I would not see this deck type as an option. This doesn´t feel promising for the Nationals.
Should I go with the staple deck?
I mean the standard formula where turn 2 you get your first guy at cap 7-8. Turn 3 govern down and get your next guy. Turn 4 both your minions govern down and turn 5 you should bleed for 24 and get your first vp. The strategy is naturally supported by eurostealth and Dreams in the master package and multi act (Ven/!ven) or stealth (Gio/Las/Mal g 1-2). The deck is hardly innovating, but it does get vp:s and gw:s.
I can go over the top with a glass canon like al-Muntahir bleeds for 16, Una or some turbo Baron or Nergal Soulgem brew. These kinds of decks are, in my mind, decks that very seldom win a final table since usually all the other finalists know what you are playing and if you get to do your thing(tm) they wont win. Pentex from your grand prey is not an option you should discard when sitting down on a final table with a deck like that.
The Ashurs-Liquidation trick is still strong, but it doesn´t have the same put through as it used to have, since most players have understood it´s strength and it´s weaknesses. And as Myrdin have already written about the master hate is running rampant in Stockholm, and it´s spreading. I expect to see alot of that in Örebro as well and that presents a big problem for this kind of deck.
Last year I played a royalty kind of deck with Malgorzata and crypt acc. In my first game there was 28 votes on the table after the first IC was Golconda:d. Is there soemthing as bad in V:tes when you sit down at a table with a deck that is really focused on one thing and the table and your position on it more or less prohibits you from doing just that thing? Maybe I should try to avoid that trap this year.The first time that I played the Swedish Nationals I had a toolboxy bleed deck with one Demonstration, two Fear of Mekhet and three Framing an Ancient Grudge and needed either card in all three of my games and didn´t draw them fast enough. What was the lesson I can learn from that?
The second year I played a Helena wall deck that lacked enough forward motion to make an impact in the meta that year.
So after these experiences playing toolbox or wall are usually options I discard in larger tournaments. Even if you get the table you usually doesn´t get more than 3 vp:s which means you almost need vp:s in all games, and not counting that you will be dead by seating(tm) at at least one table is a bit too optimistic. Oh well, I have two more days to brew.
One thing is sure though: It´s going to be a blast!
Hope to see you there.
Tomas
